The paper makes use of relevant statistical data of 1985—2011 years, through a combination of industrial economics, industrial concentration indicators and econometric cointegration model to analyze the trend of the evolution of supply and demand pattern of China’s natural gas resources as well as the main influencing factors of the demand. The results show that: ① due to the impact of resource endowments, the trend of natural gas supply industry concentration index CR5 and CR10 is relatively stable in 2011, reached 90.20% and 98.40% respectively; ② due to the imbalance of economic development in provinces and cities as well as the optimization of natural gas transportation conditions，natural gas consumption industry concentration index CR5 and CR10 is declining, dropped to 40.40% and 62.20% in 2011 from 77.64% and 94.36% in 1996 respectively; ③ cointegration analysis showed that the main factors of China’s natural gas consumption are the economic growth, natural gas prices and alternative energy prices. And based on the analysis, the paper put forward several policy recommendations.
Key words
natural gas consumption /
geographic concentration index /
cointegration model /
reform of energy prices
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