Forecast of Construction Land Scale Based on Ridge-gray Coupling Model: A Case of Jiaozuo City, Henan Province

YU Chang-Kun, Song-Wen-Bo, Wu-Ci-Fang, Fan-Hui-Ping

Areal Research and Development ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1) : 155-159.

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Areal Research and Development ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1) : 155-159.

Forecast of Construction Land Scale Based on Ridge-gray Coupling Model: A Case of Jiaozuo City, Henan Province

  • Yu Changkun1 , Song Wenbo2 , Wu Cifang1 , Fan Huiping2
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Abstract

Predicting the sacle of urban construction land has great significance to land use regulation. This paper based on construction land data and social and economic development data from 2002 to 2010 in Jiaozuo City, ridge regression analysis is used to determine the prediction equation of construction land scale. Combining the numerical prediction of GM (1,1) model on corresponding driving factors from 2011 to 2015, the construction land scale of Jiaozuo in 2011 and 2015 is predicted in the end. The research shows that infrastructure construction is the main force factors that affect the construction land scale, followed by demographic factors and economic factors. The construction land scale of Jiaozuo City will remain stable growth in the short term,up to the late “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the demand of construction land sacle in Jiaozuo City is 923.05 square kilometer. Finally, this paper gives some relevant advices on management of construction in Jiaozuo City from the social-economic conditions of Jiaozuo City and sustainable development strategy.

Key words

construction land / colinearity / ridge regression / grey prediction / Jiaozuo City

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YU Chang-Kun, Song-Wen-Bo, Wu-Ci-Fang, Fan-Hui-Ping. Forecast of Construction Land Scale Based on Ridge-gray Coupling Model: A Case of Jiaozuo City, Henan Province[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2015, 34(1): 155-159

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